Coronavirus threatens the next generation of smartphones | Techvaccine

Each autumn, Mezen Kourouche visits Sydney, Australia's largest Apple store, and queues for hours to be one of the first people in the world to get their hands on the latest iPhone.



"Ever since the iPhone 7 came out, I've been lining up for new Apple devices for a few reasons: firstly because of the hype associated with them, secondly because of resale value, and thirdly because Australia is the first country to have access. Instrument, so people are interested in hearing about it, ”he says.

According to Mr Kourouche, who developed software for the iPhone operating system (iOS), many people usually travel from overseas to get their hands on the iPhone in Australia. The nation's time zone means its Apple stores are set to open worldwide on launch day.

This year can be different though. Like most other retailers, Apple has closed its shops worldwide in response to the coronovirus outbreak.

It is too early to say whether the shops will be open in time for the launch of new equipment in the autumn.

But in some countries the picture is not encouraging. In Britain, the government has stated that it can be between three and six months before normal life begins and this includes reopening of non-essential shops.

In Apple's case, its iPhone 12 awaits in the wings. This is a particularly important phone, as it is the first to incorporate 5G technology, which allows it to be connected to the new generation of fast phone networks.

Sources have told Japanese publication Nikkei that Apple is losing weight over whether the launch could be delayed.

The same may be true for devices manufactured by Samsung and other rivals that use the Android operating system.


Phone production has already been interrupted,

"About 70% of smartphones are manufactured in China - so the epidemic has caused significant disruption in the supply of existing devices in China," says Rajat Gaurav, chief executive officer of Llamasoft, a supply chain physics company.

Many smartphone manufacturers rely on components that are made in China and South Korea, the two nations most affected by the outbreak.

The South Korean city of Daegu, where most of the country's coronovirus cases cluster, is only 20 minutes from the area where many of those components are produced.

And it's not just supply, demand has fallen dramatically. According to research firm CC, smartphone shipments in China decreased by 40% in the first quarter of 2020, down from the same period last year.

The company suggests that Chinese consumers will buy 33 million fewer phones in the first three months of the year.

"We may see significant decline in Western Europe and America as well," says Gaurav.

The impact on existing devices will be a concern for device manufacturers, but it will be the impact on their new devices that will be of greater concern, especially for fans of Apple and Android devices accustomed to specific times of the year when they purchase. Can be a new tool, while manufacturers rely on it as one of the biggest revenue streams every year.

Says Gaurav, "The smartphone is a complex product, and has a lot of components that go into it. To source all these different parts, you're getting materials and parts from about 40 different countries."

Different parts of the production process will be affected in different ways.

Frank Gillett, an analyst at research firm Forrester, says, "Many design tasks don't require significant social interaction.

But there may be some research and development work that requires specialized equipment that employees cannot take home.


A lot of work was already done this year for devices launching this year, but it could be a hindrance to devices launching in 2021, with companies already operating ahead of time.

According to Consulting BearingPoint's partner Emil Naus, the most important part of the phone is not hardware, it's software, and it can be developed remotely. However, testing the device can be difficult.

"Testing can be tough because the industry is very agile on security and they will probably struggle with the concept of people taking home prototypes for testing - because these are usually secretly sliced," he says. Huh.

The other issue is around shipping; With many airlines suspending flights and delays with ocean freight, there is a chance that the materials and components may not get to the assembly plants, and that the finished product does not get to retail outlets.

The impact of this and China factory closures is only now beginning to wane in the smartphone industry, and this effect may be larger than expected.

Mr. Gilt believes that the likes of Apple and Samsung are more likely to hold back some special features for new devices than delayed launches. Time to test certain features, or for software developers to be able to work on applications that use these features, is important.

Much depends on what happens in the coming months. Restrictions on delivery and shipping may force firms to delay product launches, and possibly launch may also be held back until 2021.

If the shops remain closed, this could be a particular problem for Apple, which has a significant retail network.

"We know that the first weeks and months of the life of sales of these new devices are very important, because they are sold at the highest level," Mr. Naus says.

Demand for new equipment can also falter, as spending serious money on the latest model may not be an option for households with financial difficulties.

But Forester does not make a big change in the price of his new handset to the brand. Instead it thinks that they can further cut prices on their older models, and perhaps increase the number of entry-level price-models.

Prices may not come down - but if there is no demand, perhaps new strategies can be put in place.

"All you can see are some creative pricing models that make people feel more affordable and accountable for their situations. There will probably be a temporary promotion to help people at a lower cost if they do an unemployment check or emergency IDs of services can show, ”Mr. Gillett says.

However, Apple's biggest fans are likely to remain loyal.

"I don't think that the [epidemic] will affect interest, especially among consumers because we're always buying new things: The big thing right now is toilet paper but eventually it will go back to being iPhones," Mr. Courcheau says.

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